If the Broncos let go of who they think they are, they will become who they should be.
As another forgettable September fades into memory, the Broncos rank as a disappointment. When they got walked off for the second straight week last Sunday, the frustration was blended with a lingering question: What is their offensive identity?
Three games into the season, nobody seems to know what the Broncos do well, and it places pressure squarely on coach Sean Payton to figure it out. Especially as it relates to the run game and wide zone blocking scheme.
Throughout training camp, Payton stressed the importance of a fast start. Now, Denver needs a get-right game against the Joe Burrow-less Bengals to finish .500 this month.
The Broncos find themselves in an odd place. It is not time to panic, not with their next seven opponents boasting a combined 7-14 record. But there is no time for patience either, not with the offense performing like this.
The group stinks. And they are particularly odoriferous on early downs.
Payton, one of the NFL’s greatest play-callers for 15 years in New Orleans, is playing 3D chess with checkers. The Broncos are 1-2 because they don’t know who they are offensively. And that confusion traces back to Payton more than a lack of execution.
Broncos podcast: At 1-2, is it time to worry about Sean Payton’s team?
“I think it was too inconsistent,” said Payton of the performance in the Chargers’ loss. “The thing that stood out was not only the penalties that set you back, but the minus plays. That has to be corrected for us to be a quality offense.”
If it were only as simple as eliminating the yellow flags and posting positive yardage.
Of course, it goes deeper than that. Payton has to stop running an offense for the team he wants, and start running an offense for the team he has. He must adapt to his personnel — evolve, establish a ground attack that will make life easier for Bo Nix with play-action passes.
Payton is a teacher. Anyone who has attended a practice or sat in on a meeting knows this. But it’s time for the professor to focus on the lesson plan when analyzing the test results.
What our eyes have told us, Sharp Football confirmed. The Broncos rank dead last in first- and second-down success this season. Nix is leaning on short passes, yet completing only 50% of them in these situations.
However, the root of this painful start is in the ground attack.
In the first half of games, the Broncos average 3 yards per carry, and just 18% have gone for 5-plus yards, per Sharp. And yet the offensive line ranks 10th in run block win rate.
The math doesn’t add up. So the grunts up front are succeeding, but the running backs are failing?
The disconnect can be explained by the lack of commitment.
Payton is quick to say games are won in the trenches. The offensive linemen insist it is their job to set the tone in practice, for games, for the team.
Why won’t Payton let them? The wide zone run attack takes time, must be nurtured and requires conviction.
Payton knows he needs to run the ball more with this terrific line he and general manager George Paton built, yet he won’t commit to it.
R.J. Harvey started against the Chargers despite this setting up as a revenge game for J.K. Dobbins. And the rookie was the focus of the first two plays? Make it make sense.
The pair finished with five carries for zero yards in the first half. Denver opened the game with three straight three-and-outs.
Going to Dobbins rescued the offense in the second half. He rushed for 83 yards on seven carries. Not sure which number is more remarkable. Is it any wonder Payton has not had a 100-yard rusher in 38 games in Denver?
Because Payton didn’t begin his career with the Broncos or win his Super Bowl here, it is hard for us to blindly trust his vision, and it’s really hard to see it without Drew Brees throwing passes and Michael Thomas, Marques Colston, Jimmy Graham, Jeremy Shockey, Alvin Kamara and Reggie Bush catching them.
Nix is still developing, and he does not have elite playmakers around him.
Payton often explains usage issues for specific players through the lack of reps. He is right, you know. The Broncos only ran 110 plays in their consecutive losses, compared to 157 for their opponents. But they did not run more plays because they were awful on third down (6-for-22) and brutal on early downs.
It’s not hard to know what to think. This is on Payton. He is like a pitcher who uses his curveball as his out pitch the first time through the order, saving the changeup that he never gets to because he has been pulled.
His three best offensive players right now are right guard Quinn Meinerz, left tackle Garett Bolles and Dobbins. Trust them. Feed him.
According to Pro Football Network data, Robbins owns the fifth-best elusive rate, and ranks third in yards after contact per rush.
Let the man eat.
And let the line set the table.
This group works well together. And always seems to be ready when the Broncos need them. So get as creative in the ground game with heavy personnel and motion as you do on layered passing routes.
Watching Payton draw up the 52-yard touchdown to Courtland Sutton and wide-open bombs to Marvin Mims Jr. raises your appreciation of him. He knows how to dial up a strike.
But we don’t know what this offense is yet. And it doesn’t feel like we will until he stops running from the truth.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.
Originally Published:
