TORONTO — The NHL hasn’t had a truly captivating chase for the league scoring title since the year before Connor McDavid entered the league.
McDavid has won five of the past seven Art Ross Trophies — four in lopsided fashion. Two seasons ago, there was a relatively close race until McDavid collected 13 points in his final five games. The two years McDavid didn’t win by eight-plus points, someone else did.
The last great, down-to-the-wire race for the scoring crown came in 2014-15, when Jamie Benn edged out John Tavares by one point and Sidney Crosby by three.
If the past month of the 2023-24 NHL season is an indication, the league could be in for an all-time great duel between Avalanche star Nathan MacKinnon and Lightning maestro Nikita Kucherov. For five consecutive days last week before both teams began their extended break, the NHL scoring lead changed hands as the two All-Stars answered one great performance with another on alternating schedules.
“He’s going to be a tough guy to beat, that’s for sure,” MacKinnon said of Kucherov. “He’s one of the smartest players, if not the smartest in the league. I definitely admire his game a lot. I think he’s very different from my game, and I can take a lot from it – the way he can slow things down. He’s got no pulse. It’s like he knows what the right play is every time.”
Kucherov has won the Art Ross and the Hart Trophy as league MVP before — both items that are not currently on MacKinnon’s resume. He swept those awards in 2018-19, when he finished with a career-high 128 points.
It looks like Kucherov will need to establish another one to win a second scoring title. Both Kucherov and MacKinnon are on pace for about 140 points. Kucherov has a slight lead, with 85 points in 49 games, though he missed one contest. MacKinnon sits one behind with 84 in 49, having appeared in all of Colorado’s games.
“He’s a hell of a player,” Kucherov said of MacKinnon. “He’s been a top player all of his life. It’s his consistency. He’s such a fun player to watch, so fast. I think the thing he’s gotten better at is slowing the game down.”
Both players got off to relatively slow starts, relative to their standard. MacKinnon had just nine points in his first 10 games, while Kucherov had 11 in his first 10.
Kucherov hit the accelerator first, with 11 points in his next three contests to grab the NHL lead on Nov. 7. He yielded it for a couple weeks, but a six-point night Nov. 24 set this potential Art Ross campaign in motion. Kucherov has led the league in points or been second to MacKinnon after every game he’s played since.
MacKinnon had one point Nov. 24, and that point trailed Kucherov by 11. But that was also game No. 3 of his current, remarkable 33-contest scoring spree. MacKinnon has at least one point in all but one of those games, and 64 total.
There are only six other players in the NHL who have as many points this season (64) as MacKinnon has since Nov. 20.
“I’ve said it before, but you seem him elevate his game in the playoffs and you just don’t think he can find another level but somehow he does,” Crosby said. “That’s what great players do. He’s just been on a tear. He’s making it look easy, but it’s not. I’m happy to see him doing well. I see it firsthand in the summers, how hard he works and what it means to him.”
A four-point and a five-point effort in a three-game span in December helped close the gap, but MacKinnon has really made this a fantastic battle in January. He began 2024 with back-to-back three-point nights to pull even with Kucherov for the first time on Jan. 4.
The two were even again on two more occasions over the next two weeks. MacKinnon held the outright lead for the first time at the end of the night Jan. 20, after a hat trick-plus-an-assist in a Philadelphia matinee.
That started this game of virtual tug-of-war on ice. Kucherov reclaimed the lead three days later with a four-point game. MacKinnon answered the next night with second five-point outing of the season.
Kucherov answered back with three the next evening. Then MacKinnon responded with two in his last game before the break. Kucherov had one more contest the next night, and two more points edged him back in front for the third time in five days.
“It’s always fun to be at the top and compete against the top guys,” Kucherov said. “I’m just excited to go out there and play every game and help my team win. I can’t take any nights off.”
How should we handicap this race the rest of the way? Tampa Bay has an easier schedule. The Lightning’s slate is 22nd in the strength of schedule, according to Tankathon, while the Avalanche have the eighth-toughest.
Both teams have 16 home games remaining. Both teams are in the middle of significant postseason battles — the Avs are likely to tangle with Dallas and Winnipeg for the top spot in the Central, while the Lightning are in a three-way tussle for third in the Atlantic with Toronto and Detroit.
MacKinnon had the slightly hotter hand entering the All-Star break. Kucherov had seven games with three or more points in his final 19, and 36 points total in that span. MacKinnon has 42 points in his past 19.
“I think I’m just seeing things well out there right now,” MacKinnon said. “Plays are developing a little slower, in a good way. It’s a fast game, so when you can kind of see things as they come, I try to make the best decision that I can. That’s kind of what Kucherov does every time. I’m always trying to work on play-making, vision, things like that. Right now, it’s been pretty good.”
If this continues to be an anything you can do, I can do better back-and-forth, MacKinnon does have one more game left and that could be a big deal. Kucherov’s final game of the season is April 17 against the Maple Leafs, when Auston Matthews could be shooting for 70 goals.
One night later, MacKinnon will get the final say with a game at Ball Arena against McDavid and the Oilers. Oh by the way, McDavid is third in points per game this season, and absolutely capable of a heater that helps him back into this discussion despite trailing the leaders by 17 and 18 right now.
It could set up for the last two nights of the regular season to be like something the NHL hasn’t seen in almost a decade.
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