A few days after the Broncos’ 19-8 road loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in October, head coach Sean Payton stepped into owner and CEO Greg Penner’s office, hoping to present a glimmer of hope.
At the time, Penner was struggling to sleep, haunted by the thought that the Broncos’ season might already be a bust after they dropped to 1-5.
Payton thought differently.
“Sean had the Detroit Lions’ schedule and said, ‘You know what? I think we can be this year’s Detroit Lions and bounce back from this,’” Penner recalled at last week’s news conference.
Last year, the Lions went from 1-6 to 9-8 after winning eight of their last 10 games. Although Detroit didn’t make the postseason, the Lions’ surge set the course for a successful 2023 campaign that now has them in the Divisional Round of the playoffs for the first time since 1992.
Denver had a similar turnaround, but the endgame was much different. The Broncos won five straight but were eliminated from the playoff picture by the end of Week 17. They went 1-3 in their final four games, securing a seventh straight losing season at 8-9, and the late-season benching of starter Russell Wilson put the future of the quarterback position in question.
Still, there’s optimism among Broncos players and ownership that their ability to flip the switch after playing poorly in the first six games has set the course for a brighter future.
“I think it’d be a start of a nice turnaround,” safety Justin Simmons said after the season-finale loss to the Raiders.
Detroit was Payton’s source of inspiration during the Broncos’ darkest time of the season and a reason to hope moving forward. But in reality, Denver’s path to mimic the Lions’ on-field success in 2024 will be challenging.
For starters, Detroit benefited from a strong and deep 2023 draft class. The Lions had two first-rounders and a pair of second-round picks, with each selection playing a major role this year. Running back Jahmyr Gibbs (No. 12 overall from Alabama) rushed for 945 yards and 10 touchdowns, while linebacker Jack Campbell (No. 18) totaled 95 tackles in 12 starts.
Detroit’s second-round picks, tight end Sam LaPorta and defensive back Brian Branch, were dominant. LaPorta became one of the league’s best tight ends, recording 889 yards and 10 touchdowns. Meanwhile, Branch had a team-best 13 passes defended.
The Broncos will have no such luxury.
The Broncos currently have six draft picks in 2024, including the franchise’s first first-round pick in three years at No. 12 overall. But Denver traded away its second-round pick to New Orleans for Payton last offseason.
“It’s important to hit on most of your picks, especially when you’re picking that high,” Broncos general manager George Paton said. “We haven’t had a first-round pick since 2021, and that one worked out pretty well. We’re excited, but we don’t want to have to pick up here again. We’re excited to be picking there.”
In addition to the Lions hitting a grand slam in the draft, a handful of key contributors are under rookie contracts, including edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown and offensive tackle Penei Sewell. Brown and Sewell were recently named first-team All-Pro by the Associated Press.
The Lions have benefited from adding free agents such as running back David Montgomery and guard Graham Glasgow. But Detroit’s rise to being a Super Bowl contender has been built through the draft.
So where will the Broncos find the help they need?
Denver’s five-player draft class from 2023, which didn’t include a first-rounder, still has question marks. Marvin Mims Jr. was named a Pro Bowler as a returner but can he develop into a reliable pass catcher? Will linebacker Drew Sanders, safety JL Skinner or cornerback Riley Moss find a significant role on defense? Moss, who is viewed as a potential starter, played three snaps at outside corner this season, according to Pro Football Focus.
Denver is projected to be $30 million over the salary cap in 2024, according to Over The Cap, with starters like inside linebacker Josey Jewell, center Lloyd Cushenberry III, fullback Michael Burton and safety P.J. Locke hitting free agency.
Decisions are also on deck for All-Pro safety Justin Simmons, wide receiver Courtland Sutton and left tackle Garett Bolles, all of whom are under contract but don’t have guaranteed money in 2024.
Then there’s the uncertainty surrounding who’s taking the snaps on offense. While the Lions had an answer with quarterback Jared Goff, the Broncos don’t after benching Wilson.
On Sunday, the Lions will face the Buccaneers for a spot in the NFC Championship. Given the Broncos’ current circumstances, they still have a long way to get to that point.
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