Chiefs (15-1) at Broncos (9-7)
When: Sunday, 2:25 p.m. MT
Where: Empower Field at Mile High
Radio/TV: 850 AM, 94.1 FM/CBS
Broncos-Chiefs series: Denver is 55-73 in 128 regular-season games dating back to 1960; the Broncos lost 16-14 in the last meeting, on Nov. 10 on the road, and have dropped eight of the last nine games against Kansas City.
In the spotlight: Broncos prepare for Chiefs backup QB Carson Wentz
The Broncos don’t care if Carson Wentz has fallen from grace. Or if the veteran quarterback has started only eight games in the last three seasons.
With a trip to the playoffs hanging in the balance on Sunday, Denver is locked in on trying to stop Wentz, who will be starting in place of star quarterback Patrick Mahomes in the regular-season finale. Coach Andy Reid’s decision to play Wentz came after the Chiefs locked up the top seed in the AFC and wanted to rest Mahomes and other key pieces before the playoffs.
“He’s in this league for a reason. He’s big, and he’s strong. He was a first-round draft pick,” Broncos head coach Sean Payton said. “It’s the player, but it’s also everything around it and understanding what they’re trying to do.”
The last time Wentz started a game was in Week 18 of the 2023 season. He threw for 163 yards, two touchdowns and an interception to lead the Rams to a 21-20 victory over the 49ers, who primarily played backups in the second half.
At one point, Wentz was considered one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The 2016 second-overall pick played five seasons in Philadelphia, where he finished third in the MVP voting during a stellar 2017 campaign. He totaled 3,296 yards, 33 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 13 games but missed the Eagles’ Super Bowl run due to injury.
In 2021, Wentz was traded to the Colts for a pair of draft picks. He guided the Colts to a 9-8 record while throwing for 3,563 yards, 27 touchdowns and seven interceptions in his lone season in Indianapolis. His last run as a full-time starter came in 2022 with Washington. As the Commanders signal-caller, he battled injuries and turnover issues. The former North Dakota State standout had nine interceptions in eight games (seven starts).
Kansas City is Wentz’s fourth team in four years. Still, Broncos defensive coordinator Vance Joseph showed nothing but respect for Wentz’s talent in the lead-up to Sunday’s game.
“He’s a high pick for a reason,” Joseph said. “He’s been a winner. He’s talented, so we have to respect this guy. The trend in the league right now is quarterbacks making a resurgence. I mean, he wants that too.”
Joseph was referring to quarterbacks like the Vikings’ Sam Darnold, a first-round pick who emerged as a quality starter after being a backup in San Francisco last year. With Wentz given the opportunity to be a starter again, Joseph anticipates him giving it his all.
“He’s gonna play his best football,” Joseph said. “It won’t be easy.”
Who has the edge?
When Broncos run
Javonte Williams didn’t have a carry last week against the Bengals while Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime received the majority of the workload. Although McLaughlin has shown some positive signs in recent weeks, the overall inconsistency of the group, mixed with Payton’s tendency to abandon the run at times, remains concerning. The Chiefs have allowed 4.2 yards per carry this season. They’ve also given up only 39 rushing attempts of 10-plus yards — fourth-lowest in the league, according to NFL’s Next Gen Stats. Edge: Broncos
When Broncos pass
Bo Nix has thrown for at least 200 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions in six games this season — tied with C.J. Stroud in 2023 and Justin Herbert in 2020 for the most such games by a rookie since at least 1950, according to Next Gen Stats. Chiefs star defensive tackle Chris Jones and edge rusher George Karlaftis won’t be playing, which is a bonus for Denver. Edge: Broncos
When Chiefs run
With Chiefs running backs Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt sidelined, Kansas City will rely on Carson Steele (48 carries, 158 yards) and former Bronco Samaje Perine (19 carries, 91 yards) in the run game. Denver’s run defense has taken a step back lately, allowing at least 100 yards in three straight games. However, the unit should be able to handle the Chiefs’ third- and fourth-string running backs. Edge: Broncos
When Chiefs pass
Kansas City has allowed 75 pressures in the last five games. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a seven-sack game against the Bengals. It was the fifth time this season Denver recorded five-plus sacks in a game. Defensive end Zach Allen has a pressure rate of 11.3%. Edge: Broncos
Special teams
Marvin Mims Jr. on Thursday was named to his second Pro Bowl as a returner, and rightfully so. He has averaged 15.7 yards on 26 punt return attempts this season. Last week marked just the second time Riley Dixon didn’t down a punt inside the 20-yard line this season. Chiefs kicker Harrison Butker is 2 for 4 on field goal attempts of 50-plus yards. Edge: Broncos
Coaching
No matter who the Chiefs have playing on Sunday, Andy Reid is still one of the best coaches in the game. He and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo are going to call a competitive game. They are not going to let Denver walk over them. But Sean Payton isn’t too shabby himself. And he’ll be starting his 1s against many of the Chiefs’ 2s and 3s. Edge: Chiefs
Tale of the tape
| Broncos | Chiefs | |
|---|---|---|
| Total offense | 314.9 (22nd) | 342 (13th) |
| Rush offense | 106.8 (21st) | 110.2 (16th) |
| Pass offense | 205.6 (22nd) | 231.8 (10th) |
| Points per game | 24.2 (10th) | 24.1 (11th) |
| Total defense | 330.8 (15th) | 310.8 (4th) |
| Run defense | 100.8 (8th) | 98.3 (4th) |
| Pass defense | 230.1 (25th) | 212.4 (14th) |
| Points allowed | 19.4 (5th) | 18.0 (2nd) |
(Click here to view chart in mobile.)
By the numbers
17: Receiving yards Broncos WR Courtland Sutton needs to reach 1,000 for the season.
21: Pressures generated by Broncos DL Zach Allen in under 2.5 seconds.
92.8: Passer rating allowed by Denver’s defense in man coverage.
44.5%: Broncos QB Bo Nix’s completion percentage when under pressure.
5.6: Yards per carry for Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin on inside runs.
Bet on it
Courtland Sutton over 5.5 receptions: Sutton has at least five receptions in four of Denver’s last five games. He has been Bo Nix’s go-to target throughout the season. In the Broncos’ most important game of the year, expect Nix to rely on Sutton heavily in the passing game.
Broncos score touchdown on first drive (+255): The Broncos’ backs are against the wall. They know a postseason berth is at stake and will not waste time on Sunday. Denver will try to establish momentum from the jump and take the Chiefs out of the game as quickly as possible.
Post predictions
Parker Gabriel, beat writer: Broncos 20, Chiefs 17
Maybe it’ll end up being smooth sailing for Denver. The status as a big home favorite will make for a festive Week 18 and a cathartic end to the playoff drought. But it’s hard to imagine Kansas City, the longtime divisional big brother, rolling over and letting it happen that easily. Even with Patrick Mahomes in a ball cap. Even with other key players only watching. Coach Andy Reid and DC Steve Spagnuolo don’t have to take the week off. Still, Denver makes good on chance No. 3 and punches its ticket.
Ryan McFadden, beat writer: Broncos 26, Chiefs 17
Third time’s the charm, right? Denver has shown it can beat the Chiefs. A blocked field goal attempt at Arrowhead took away the Broncos’ chance of pulling their biggest upset of the season. On Sunday, however, the Broncos will be playing against a bunch of the Chiefs’ backups. The game will be closer than expected, but the Broncos should take care of business in front of their home crowd. If not, they never deserved to be in the playoffs to begin with.
Troy Renck, columnist: Broncos 22, Chiefs 19
The K.C. bench would like nothing more than to send the Broncos to the beach. But without Patrick Mahomes, Chris Jones, Travis Kelce and Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs are not upsetting the Broncos. Sean Payton will find himself in rhythm with the run game — meaning Bo Nix is a big part of it on RPOs — as the Broncos advance to the playoffs with a white-knuckle win.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Broncos 25, Chiefs 14
As much as Kansas City might like to spoil the Broncos’ parade to the playoffs, every decision its coaching staff has made leading into this one indicates just how little they actually care. It’s hard to beat a team with that sort of posture, especially one as motivated as the Broncos playing in front of a frothing-at-the-mouth home crowd. The postseason drought ends Sunday, with a trip to sunny Buffalo a fitting reward after the debacle that was the last two weeks.
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