Colorado (3-4, 1-3 Big 12) at Utah (5-2, 2-2 Big 12)
When/where: 8:15 p.m. Saturday/Rice–Eccles Stadium
TV/Radio: ESPN/850 KOA
BetMGM Line: CU +13.5, 49.5 over/under
Weather: 57 degrees, partly cloudy, chance of showers
Series History: CU trails 33-35-3; Utah’s won 11 of last 13, but CU won 49-24 last year in Boulder
Three storylines
Targets for Salter: Buffs QB Kaidon Salter’s weapons in the pass game have grown. Omarion Miller leads the team in receiving yards, Sincere Brown is a deep threat and Dre’lon Miller has also improved as a pass-catcher. But Joseph Williams has also stepped up lately. Williams caught eight passes for 128 yards and a TD against Iowa State, including a 38-yard grab in the fourth to seal the win. Salter needs all those guys for CU to have success against a Utah secondary that’s third in the Big 12 with 155.4 passing yards allowed.
Third-down stops: Utah’s offense leads the FBS in third-down conversion percentage at 57.6%. That’s been an Achilles heel for the CU defense, which ranks ninth in the Big 12 with a 35.6% stop rate. If CU can’t consistently get the Utah offense off the field on third down, it could be a long day for the Buffs. The Utes also know how to rack up possession time by moving the sticks, as their 181 first downs are seventh in the FBS and second in the Big 12. CU’s defense is 15th in the Big 12 with 159 first downs allowed.
Buffs against Utah’s front: Utah’s offensive line is stout, ranking sixth in FBS and leading the Big 12 at 245 rushing yards per game. They’ve also been able to protect the QB, ranking ninth in the nation with just 0.86 sacks allowed per game. Protecting the QB — and getting to him, in CU’s case — is an important X-factor in this matchup as Utah starting QB Devon Dampier has been listed as questionable this week after he was seen hobbling late in last week’s loss to BYU. True freshman Byrd Ficklin could start instead.
Predictions
Kyle Newman, sportswriter: Utah 31, CU 14
Was the upset win over Iowa State two weeks ago a fluke, or proof the Buffs are starting to turn the corner? Saturday’s performance at Rice–Eccles will answer that question. The first home win over a ranked team since 2019 was a great sign for the Buffs, but not if they can’t go on the road and be competitive against the Utes. It’s hard to see that happening considering how stingy the Utah defense is, allowing just 15.3 points per game, second in the Big 12. After this beatdown, a bowl appearance looks like a stretch for CU.
Sean Keeler, sports columnist: Utah 35, CU 21
Heart or head? On paper, the Buffs have no business being within 10 points of this angry, physical Utes front, especially under the lights in Salt Lake City. Then again, we just watched Pat Shurmur out-coach Matt Campbell and Kadon Salter out-execute Rocco Becht in the clutch. This is the Big 12, where anything can happen, and often does. Lean with the head on this one, though — after dropping a heartbreaker to BYU in the Holy War, it’s hard to see Utah letting another regional rivalry game slip away. If Kyle Whittingham is smart, he’ll play more of freshman QB Byrd Ficklin, who can really run, instead of preferred starter Devon Dampier, who reportedly can’t right now.
Matt Schubert, sports editor: Utah 20, CU 16
Big, physical offensive lines have long been a problem for the Buffs under Coach Prime. The unknown is how much the Utes will miss veteran quarterback Devon Dampier if he’s unable to play Saturday night. This much we do know: The Utah defense is salty, and the secondary is as good as it gets in the Big 12. Buffs QB Kadon Salter looked pretty darn good the last time he suited up against Iowa State. But this is the Utes in Salt Lake City. That’s a tough ask for anyone.
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