SUNRISE, Fla. — The Colorado Avalanche do not lack for offense most nights, a statement that is backed up by the club leading the NHL in both goals and goals per game one month from the trade deadline.
Possessing one of the top two scoring defensemen, two of the top six forwards and another on pace to shatter personal bests in offensive output is one of the best foundations in the sport. But this team expects to win a championship, so every nit can and will be picked.
And one ongoing concern for the entire 2023-24 season has been whether or not the Avs have enough supplemental offensive weapons at their disposal. The offensive depth on defense is as good as there is in the NHL.
Up front, it’s less clear. And as the past three games since the All-Star break has shown, when Colorado’s world-class forwards aren’t firing at the typical rate, the Avs need more from their supporting cast.
“That has to be the mentality for those players (every game),” Colorado assistant coach Ray Bennett said Friday after an optional practice in South Florida.
“There’s a coach in our league that’s been around for a long time that once said, ‘Safe is death.’ You don’t want them getting scored on, allowing scoring opportunities, chances, etc., etc., (but) they can’t play so safe that it leads to not good places. That can’t be the attitude. It has to be more than that. That’s the appropriate way in that case with those guys. It can’t just be neutral, can’t just be safe.”
The Avs have scored six goals in three games since the break. The power play has been shut out, but two per game at even strength isn’t enough, either.
Valeri Nichushkin isn’t available while he’s in the NHL/NHLPA Players’ Assistance Program, so the club’s top goal scorer outside of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen can’t be the solution he was while scoring 21 goals in 29 games before his absence. The line with Ross Colton between Miles Wood and Logan O’Connor has been consistently good, but it’s the other two where the offense comes and goes.
Colorado has played 20 games since Devon Toews’ strong postgame critique in Chicago. Nichushkin is fourth among the forwards during that span with seven goals. He’s only played in half the games.
The Avs have six forwards who have played in at least 15 of the 20 games who have scored two goals or fewer. Three of them are the centers that line up on the depth chart behind MacKinnon. Colton, Ryan Johansen and Fredrick Olofsson have a combined four goals and 20 points in the past 20 games, while MacKinnon has 18 goals and 37 points.
To put it all in perspective, Colorado traded away Tomas Tatar in part because he was an offensive-minded forward who wasn’t producing enough. Tatar’s points per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 with the Avalanche this season (1.56) is better than six of the forwards who played Thursday night in Raleigh.
Three of those guys are the team’s fourth line. It’s not fair to put all or even most of this on that trio. Their primary objective is not to score goals. They are expected to not get scored on first, and push the puck in the right direction. Goals are often a bonus, but the club does need them at times as well.
“I think for us, offensive success is forechecking, momentum, zone time, having hard-working shifts that break defensemen down so that when our other lines come out, we can capitalize on it,” Andrew Cogliano said. “We’ve had good times, good moments but I think there’s better. I think there needs to be better. I don’t think we’re completely happy.”
Some combination of Cogliano, Olofsson, Joel Kiviranta and Kurtis MacDermid has been the fourth line most nights. That quartet has combined for 11 goals this season, though just two in the past 20 games.
“I think our line has been OK,” Cogliano said. “It’s been good at times. It’s been fine. But I also think with the consistency, I want us to push for more. Fourth lines and third lines in the playoffs and down the stretch can make a difference. It’s that simple. I don’t think we’ve found it yet. I don’t think we’re there yet.”
The solutions might end up being internal. Recently injured Artturi Lehkonen and recently signed Zach Parise have combined to play eight games since November, so two months of healthy play for both should help. Getting Nichushkin back should help.
If the Avs do have another move in them before the March 8 deadline to add another forward, that could also help. It might seem weird to say the highest-scoring team in the NHL has an offensive concern, but playoff series can be won and lost on the margins and a team with the highest of expectations is going to want to limit as many potential postseason weaknesses as possible.
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