NFL Picks: Ravens, Dolphins square off one week after impressive wins, plus the Browns are going to the postseason

Around the AFC

Hey, uh, Chiefs? Kansas City is 3-5 since its 6-1 start and is coming off a loss to the Raiders last weekend without giving up an offensive touchdown. Patrick Mahomes and company are probably still fine, but, well, it’s a probably at this point. They could conceivably still choke the division away with a pair of losses to close the season (combined with two wins by either Denver or Las Vegas), but even if they wrap up the West, it looks like a flawed team down the stretch. Can they find a fresh gear in the postseason, assuming they get there?

Bills rolling(-ish). Don’t look now, but Josh Allen and Buffalo have won three straight. Sure, they almost lost to the Chargers in a game that could have tanked their chances. But they survived, are 9-6 and now play New England this weekend. They’ve still got to secure a spot in the postseason, but if they get there, nobody’s going to be wild about seeing them the first weekend. Especially if they beat Miami in Week 18 and end up the division champs.

Super Joe. If Allen isn’t the hottest quarterback in the AFC, then it’s probably… Joe Flacco. Who could have seen that coming? He didn’t even sign with the Browns until November, and all he’s done since then is slay opposing defenses. After slicing the New York Jets on Thursday night, Flacco’s got four straight 300-plus-yard outings and has Cleveland locked into the postseason. It’s been an incredible run. The Browns close the regular season at Cincinnati next weekend, then turn their attention to the wild card, where a fierce defense and Flacco figure to be a tough out.

Around the NFC

Baker’s dozen. How about Baker Mayfield’s resurgence? The journeyman No. 1 overall pick (whom the Broncos could have signed instead of Jarrett Stidham this spring) is playing well for Tampa and taking aim at an NFC South title. He’s also taking aim at a big payday. The franchise tag for quarterbacks next year could be north of $35 million, so whether he’s back in Tampa or elsewhere next year, he should be substantially wealthier.

Rebooted Rams. The Rams were supposed to be in a rebuilding year, given their $75 million-plus in dead salary cap. Instead, Sean McVay’s putting forth one of his best coaching jobs and quarterback Matthew Stafford is playing at a really high level. If they beat the Giants this weekend and Pittsburgh beats Seattle, they’re into the postseason. A tough Week 18 assignment against San Francisco means they’ve got to take care of business this weekend.

Elimination game. Neither Minnesota nor Green Bay has been particularly impressive this year, but both still can get to the postseason. Sunday is essentially an elimination game. And how about this? The Packers will be without the top-paid cornerback in the NFL, Jaire Alexander, because the team suspended him for a game. Here’s why: He crashed the game captain party at midfield and nearly messed up the coin toss, telling the referee the Packers wanted to kick off rather than deferring the choice. A bizarre scene that will cost him another game in a bizarre, injury-riddled season.

Game of the Week

Miami at Baltimore

This should be a really good one. The Ravens are coming off perhaps the most impressive win of the year, a dominating performance on the road against the 49ers on Christmas night. The Dolphins got a big win, too, knocking off Dallas. So now Baltimore can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC and the bye week that comes with it with a win. The Dolphins need to beat the Ravens and Bills to ensure that spot for themselves. Miami showed, finally, it was capable of beating a quality opponent. Now it gets a chance to show what it can do against another one, this time on the road against the new MVP favorite in Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson.

Ravens 27, Dolphins 24

Lock of the Week

San Francisco at Washington

There’s several factors at play here — namely that the 49ers are very good and the Commanders are not. Then there’s the fact that San Francisco got embarrassed on its home field Christmas night against Baltimore and will be looking to bounce back. Then there’s the fact that Washington’s defense is a sieve and Kyle Shanahan’s offense has more weapons than perhaps any other in the NFL. This game is ripe for beatdown status, even with the 49ers having to travel all the way across the country.

49ers 38, Commanders 13