Nuggets playoff scenarios, tiebreakers explained: Nobody controls their own destiny for 1-seed in West

SAN ANTONIO — Devonte’ Graham broke the NBA tiebreaker system on his way to Cancun and left the Western Conference standings in flames behind him.

Welcome to the most chaotic last-day setup for a No. 1 seed of all time.

For the first time in NBA history, there is a three-way tie for first place in a conference after 81 games. The top seed in the West would have been undecided entering Sunday’s slate of games even if the Nuggets (56-25) had protected their 23-point lead against the Spurs. It just would have been more simple: Denver would have controlled its own destiny. Winning in Memphis would clinch No. 1.

But instead, the Nuggets choked one away against the worst team in the West. As a result? Nobody, yes nobody, controls their own destiny for the No. 1 seed going into the final day of the 2023-24 regular season.

Confused yet? Here are all the relevant games around the West on Sunday, and all scenarios that could play out for the Nuggets.

Nuggets’ relevant games Sunday (MT)

• Nuggets at Grizzlies, 1:30 p.m.
• Mavericks at Thunder, 1:30 p.m.
• Suns at Timberwolves, 1:30 p.m.
• Lakers at Pelicans, 1:30 p.m. (ESPN)
• Jazz at Warriors, 1:30 p.m.
• Trail Blazers at Kings, 1:30 p.m.

NBA 3-way tiebreaker, explained

If the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Thunder end in a three-way tie, the final standings will look different than if the Timberwolves and Thunder end in a two-way tie — meaning the Nuggets-Grizzlies game could matter even if it doesn’t matter to the Nuggets.

First tiebreaker: A division winner earns the tiebreaker over a non-division winner. But all three teams are in the Northwest division, so that doesn’t solve anything.

Second tiebreaker: Best win percentage in all head-to-head games among tied teams. Minnesota finished 2-2 against Denver and 2-2 against Oklahoma City. And Oklahoma City won the season series over Denver, 3-1. That means Oklahoma City is 5-3 overall, Minnesota is 4-4 and Denver is 3-5. So the Thunder would get the No. 1 seed.

Then the tiebreaker would reset, and the No. 2 seed between Denver and Minnesota would be decided by the two-way tie procedure.

NBA 2-way tiebreaker, explained

First tiebreaker: Head-to-head record. Again, Denver and Minnesota split their four games.

Second tiebreaker: A division winner earns the tiebreaker over a non-division winner. But in this scenario, Oklahoma City has won the division and the conference already. Onward.

Third tiebreaker: Win percentage within the division. Minnesota is 12-4 against Northwest Division opponents. Denver is 10-6. Advantage Minnesota. The three-way tie would end with Denver in third.

However, if Oklahoma City and Minnesota end in a two-way tie, the tiebreaker procedure continues. Not only did they split their four games; they also have identical 12-4 division records.

Fourth tiebreaker: Win percentage within the conference. Minnesota is two games ahead of Oklahoma City in terms of their win-loss records within the West. So Minnesota would earn the higher seed in this two-way tiebreaker, even though Oklahoma City would earn the higher seed in the three-way tiebreaker.

If you have a migraine trying to comprehend that, here are the scenarios broken down by the plausible results of Sunday’s games.

NBA Western Conference No. 1 seed scenarios Sunday

Nuggets are the No. 1 seed if:

• Denver wins AND Minnesota loses AND Oklahoma City loses

Thunder are the No. 1 seed if:

• Oklahoma City wins AND Denver wins
  OR
• Oklahoma City wins AND Denver loses AND Minnesota loses

Timberwolves are the No. 1 seed if:

• Minnesota wins AND Denver loses
  OR
• Minnesota wins AND Oklahoma City loses

Nuggets playoff seeding scenarios Sunday

Nuggets are the No. 1 seed if:

• Denver wins AND Minnesota loses AND Oklahoma City loses

Nuggets are the No. 2 seed if:

• Denver wins AND Minnesota loses AND Oklahoma City wins
  OR
• Denver wins AND Minnesota wins AND Oklahoma City loses

Nuggets are the No. 3 seed if:

• Denver loses
  OR
• Denver wins AND Minnesota wins AND Oklahoma City wins