The Nuggets are going into Oklahoma City for a colossal Game 7 against the Thunder on Sunday (1:30 p.m. MT). The winner advances to the Western Conference Finals to face the Minnesota Timberwolves. The loser enters the offseason. Here are three keys to the winner-take-all playoff game, which will air on ABC.
1. Battle of the second options: Non-Joker minutes, you say? The Nuggets have been jeopardized far more by the minutes without Jamal Murray in this series. Through six games, their net rating is 30.7 points better with Murray on the floor than off it. The on/off difference for Nikola Jokic is still staggering (9.1), but somehow seems much less so by comparison.
Murray hasn’t been efficient, but he’s been gutsy against the most difficult defense he’s ever faced, averaging 22 points, five rebounds and five assists. Nuggets interim coach David Adelman has pushed back at the notion that playing Jokic the entire fourth quarter of Game 5 enabled Oklahoma City’s comeback, telling reporters after reviewing the film: “The only regret I had was not taking Jamal out to start the fourth quarter.” The Nuggets will need to survive a couple of two-minute respites for their star point guard in Game 7, including one during the fourth quarter in all likelihood. Russell Westbrook has had a rough series off the bench.
Meanwhile, OKC’s Jalen Williams has been almost completely neutralized as a secondary scorer, and Denver has been able to get away with cross-matching smaller players on Chet Holmgren for stretches (whether in zone or man). Excluding Game 3, Williams is averaging 13.4 points on 28.4% shooting from the field. The MVP showdown deserves top billing in a game of this magnitude, but teams’ fates are just as often determined by the success or failure of their second options.
2. Will 3-point shooting travel?: Defenses narrow their focus in these moments. More urgently than ever, the goal is to reduce your opponent to the type of shot that you can live with. Denver will probably seek opportunities to trap Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and crowd his driving angles. The Thunder will probably continue to shrink the paint on Jokic, taking away his lobs and denying the pocket pass to him.
The Nuggets have two elements working against them.
First: Home-court advantage matters, even if the league-wide playoff results indicate otherwise. In the regular season, the Nuggets shot 39% from 3-point range at home and 36% on the road. In the playoffs, they’re 37.8% at home and 33.5% on the road. Oklahoma City is 37.3% at home and 26.5% on the road through 10 postseason games. Lu Dort, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins have each stuck the knife in Denver’s back at various points. Denver needs at least one role player to provide some of what Julian Strawther brought to Game 6. Easier said than done in an unfriendly and unfamiliar environment.
Second: Oklahoma City’s defense is better at recovering to shooters than Denver’s. Even the “open” shots created by Jokic’s gravity might not be completely safe from a solid contest. The Nuggets are more susceptible to being punished for double-teams.
3. Can Jokic get OKC’s bigs in foul trouble?: When Jokic is on the court, expect two Thunder big men to be out there with him at all times. Mark Daigneault can rotate between combinations of Holmgren, Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams, who has been Oklahoma City’s pleasant surprise of the series.
If Jokic can play aggressively through some of the double-teams and get at least one of his defenders into early foul trouble, he’ll open up the game for himself, at minimum, by meddling with Daigneault’s substitution pattern a bit. In Game 6, both Hartenstein and Williams had three fouls before halftime.
When OKC plays big, not only can it make life harder on Jokic as an offensive engine, it can threaten to undermine the zone schemes that Denver has been trying on defense. Rebounding out of a zone is already an inherent challenge, made more so if the opposing offense puts more pressure and length on the offensive glass. Especially away from home, the Nuggets can’t afford to give up back-breaking momentum 3s out of broken plays or second-chance scrambles.
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