This time, things are likely to be different.
This time, President-elect Donald Trump knows a lot more about how to manipulate the levers of power and plans to surround himself with loyalists willing to do his bidding in making sweeping changes to both policies and processes.
It could provide a sharp contrast with what happened eight years ago when, as an unexpected victor, Trump stumbled through a disorganized transition and chose advisers who saw their jobs as keeping him from self-inflicted damage.
That won’t happen again, he vows. And the Supreme Court ruling on presidential immunity will only encourage his expansive view of his innate authority.
For months, perhaps years, Trump’s advisers have been preparing proposed executive orders, legislative drafts and lists of loyalists to carry them out, starting next Jan. 20.
And he has made no secret of his agenda:
IMMIGRATION. Trump plans to “close” the U.S.-Mexico border on Inauguration Day and order the deportation of millions of immigrants who are in the United States illegally, enlisting federal and local law enforcement agencies and perhaps the U.S. military to carry out his directives. It would almost certainly be messy and, along with the criminals he has vowed to target, could sweep up many law-abiding long-time U.S. residents, including necessary farm and construction workers.
TARIFFS. Trump says he will impose tariffs on all U.S. imports of 10-20%, which many economists predict will raise prices substantially, threaten a new burst of inflation and perhaps cause a recession. Independent analysts forecast it could pass up to $4,000 in costs to the average American household.
ENERGY. Trump said he plans to order a massive increase in oil and gas production, starting on his Inauguration Day, including opening more federal lands to drilling. He plans to curb government programs to encourage the move away from fossil fuels and build more electric vehicles.
MUSLIM BAN. Trump promised to restore the ban on immigration from designated Muslim-majority nations, which President Joe Biden rescinded.
TAXES. Trump plans to urge the new Congress to make permanent his 2017 tax cuts, which expire at the end of 2025. During the campaign, he proposed an array of additional tax cuts, which may face congressional resistance because of their cost, including more corporate cuts and exempting from taxes all Social Security income, car loan interest, income from tips, and the income of military members, veterans and law enforcement personnel.
RETRIBUTION. Trump said he will fire special counsel Jack Smith and will almost certainly order the Justice Department to withdraw the federal charges against him for trying to overturn the 2020 election. He threatened retribution against those responsible for prosecuting him and those he blames for his 2020 election defeat, including election officials. He also threatened legal action against Biden and other members of his family.
He vowed to end the Justice Department’s independence and make it much more obedient to the White House. His choice for attorney general will be closely watched.
HEALTH CARE. Trump, who failed in his first term to carry out his promise to repeal the Affordable Care Act, has been vague on his plans this time around, beyond declaring he has “concepts of a plan” to revise the 14-year-old Obama health care law. But House Speaker Mike Johnson called for a “massive reform” of the popular program under which some 20 million Americans get their health coverage.
HEALTH PROGRAMS. Trump said he will put former candidate turned Trump supporter Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a longtime vaccine critic, in charge of government health and food programs. Kennedy said he wants to urge local water systems to end the use of fluoridation and review past government approval of vaccines.
ABORTION. While unlikely to seek a national legislative ban, Trump can take administrative steps to limit abortions like curbing the use and shipment of pills used to terminate pregnancies.
REVAMPING THE GOVERNMENT. Trump promised to name billionaire car manufacturer Elon Musk, one of his highest profile supporters, to head a government commission to sharply cut federal spending. Musk promised to find $2 trillion in savings, which could mean sharp cuts in domestic programs for education, health and housing; defense spending; and the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid programs.
CIVIL SERVICE. Trump said he will reinstitute a first administration plan — which Biden revoked – to make up to 50,000 nonpartisan civil service employees subject to dismissal unless they support his agenda.
UKRAINE. Trump said he would settle, even before his inauguration, the three-year-old war that began when Russia invaded its pro-West neighbor. Vice President-elect JD Vance has opposed U.S. support for the embattled nation, declaring, “I really don’t care what happens to Ukraine.”
NATO. Trump’s election raises warning flags for the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the 75-year-old treaty that has tied the United States to the defense of European democracies. He threatened to disregard the provision that requires member nations to support any fellow member that is attacked.
Much of what Trump is promising can be done by executive order, but many acts will be challenged in court and his tax and spending proposals will require congressional approval. Even with a Republican Congress, some of this could prove difficult – and the potential fallout is uncertain at best.
In any case, get set for a rough ride. It might make Trump’s first term look like a walk in the park.
Carl P. Leubsdorf is the former Washington bureau chief of the Dallas Morning News. Readers may write to him via email at carl.p.leubsdorf@gmail.com.
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