Nathan MacKinnon doesn’t always enjoy speaking with reporters, but there’s no question he is one of the most honest superstars in the NHL if not all of professional sports.
He will often say what is on his mind, is blunt when he needs to be and doesn’t sugarcoat the situation when the Colorado Avalanche is scuffling. While the Avs have started the season 0-4 for the first time in 26 years, the missing players from what could be one of the most talented teams in the NHL are a problem.
“Every year, we don’t have our team,” MacKinnon said Thursday. “It’s just really annoying. We would just love to have our team. I mean, we’re like $40 million under the cap right now. It’s probably not great.
“We have a lot of guys out and it would be great to have them back. They are pretty good players.”
The actual number is closer to $30 million, but MacKinnon’s assessment is correct. There is no other NHL team missing nearly as many key players as Colorado. The Avs are without five of their top 10 players. No other team in the Central Division is missing more than two.
It’s impossible to fully extract the roster issues from any diagnosis of what’s gone wrong this season for the Avalanche. Should Avs fans hit the panic button? Have a finger ready if they lose Friday night at home to Anaheim? Just be patient and wait for the reinforcements?
The logical answer is the last of those three options. But sports fandom isn’t always logical, and there are other issues beyond the shorthanded nature of the roster.
And while it is certainly possible that Colorado will look like a Stanley Cup contender in January, the Avs do need to start collecting some points to put less pressure on the club later in the year.
“The urgency for us to get on the board with a win is here,” Avs coach Jared Bednar said.
There have been some positive developments nestled into the four losses, but some real areas of concern as well. Let’s dig into both, and what they might mean for the rest of the season.
Pro: Without four key forwards, Casey Mittelstadt and Ross Colton have stepped up in support of MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. Mittelstadt’s underlying numbers don’t look great on the surface, but dig into who he has played with and you’ll find some very encouraging stuff. Put two of Artturi Lehkonen, Valeri Nichushkin, Jonathan Drouin or Gabe Landeskog next to him, and the Avs should have a dynamite second line later in the year.
Or maybe Colton ends up there, as well. The Avs have used him primarily as the No. 3 center, but he’s looked great in the top six as a wing. Maybe Colorado can eventually find a 3C on the trade market and allow him to stay on the wing?
Con: Logan O’Connor looks like he’ll need some time to get back to his peak form after the season-ending hip surgery from last year. He hasn’t had quite the impact the Avs could use right now, given the missing bodies, but lots of NHL players have needed time to adjust after that surgery. If he’s back to where he can be by April, that’s another plus for a deep playoff run.
Pro: The power play looks great, even without key guys. Mittelstadt and Colton have been excellent fill-ins.
Con: The penalty kill is last in the league and looks like it misses key players who are out. Lehkonen, Nichushkin and Devon Toews are all critical parts of the PK.
Con, 2.0: While the power play is rolling, the 5-on-5 offense is not. And the Avs can’t expect to average 1.5 extra-man goals per game. Bednar might have found a workable second line with Nikolai Kovalenko and O’Connor flanking Mittelstadt, which might allow him to load up the top line with Colton and Rantanen around MacKinnon.
Pro: Ivan Ivan looks like an NHL player. He’ll need to keep proving it, but Ivan just looks solid every night. Predictable, sound, makes smart plays. Everything you want in a bottom-six player. Would be a huge win for the club’s scouting department for him to become a dependable, every-night guy.
Con: Calum Ritchie does not look ready, yet. He might get five more games, but Ritchie is struggling. The talent is obvious, but translating how he needs to play in the NHL is hard, especially at his age. Very few guys taken outside the top handful of picks in any draft class stick in the NHL as teenagers. The Avs aren’t likely to need him once some of the big forwards get back, so he’s probably going back to Oshawa at some point.
Pro: Alexandar Georgiev has taken a small step forward in each of the past two games. There’s no one healthy player on the roster right now who can flip the near-term fortunes of this team more than he can.
Con: Georgiev’s still got a ways to go. He was better against Boston, but it was still four goals against (even if it would be hard to blame him at all for a couple of them).
The Avalanche’s margin for error is very slim right now. Even working as hard as possible and doing all the right things won’t lead to wins every night with a shorthanded roster. But league-average goaltending would give the Avs a puncher’s chance, and they desperately need to start treading water, at least, after the 0-4 start.
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