The Broncos needed a seismic change in leadership, and owner Greg Penner realized it. Two years ago, after watching Dalton Risner shove Brett Rypien, after watching Randy Gregory punch a Los Angeles Ram, after hearing “SpongeBob Squarepants” character Patrick Star roast Russell Wilson, Penner fired Nathaniel Hackett.
You can draw a line from that Christmas Day game to Sunday. Win, and the Broncos are in the playoffs. Penner rescued the Broncos by hiring Sean Payton. He established a culture and created accountability, but as Denver sits on the doorstep of its first postseason appearance since 2015, questions persist about Payton’s mindset.
The Broncos reached this position because they set a single-season sack record, boast the favorite for Defensive Player of the Year in Patrick Surtain II and have a quarterback in Bo Nix who has been at his best when it matters most.
But what about their coach? He deserves credit for getting the Broncos here, but are we sure that he is a walking mismatch on the sidelines anymore?
He was when the season began. He convinced a team of kids and castoffs that they could defy expectations, becoming the singular voice in their heads.
He is the unquestioned compass. But is it fair to ask for better? Heck yeah.
Payton has raised questions with his waffling down the stretch. Against the Chargers, he remained unnecessarily aggressive before halftime after a 3-yard loss on a completion to Javonte Williams. The Chargers did not call time out, and the Broncos — let’s be real — were not driving 50 yards in 17 seconds to set up a field goal with a horizontal passing attack. But they pushed forward, prompting the Chargers to stop the clock and, after a bad penalty by Tremon Smith, cash in three points on the first converted free kick since 1976.
The explanation from Payton was simple: You always look to score. Stay aggressive. Grrrrr.
So what happened last Saturday? A clenched fist was the choice against the Chargers, but courage vanished against the Bengals. Payton elected not to go for the two-point conversion to win the game in regulation.
Analytics offered equal support for either choice, but Payton’s decision was remarkable because of who he is. He admitted this week he second-guessed it. A tie would have clinched a playoff berth, and he indicated that figured into his choice. That would have made sense on most Sundays, but the idea that the Broncos could play even with Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow for 10 minutes seemed incredibly optimistic, if not delusional.
The Broncos should have won with a first down on their last possession, but the fallout from the game is that Payton was not comfortable following his gut.
He needs to figure out who he is and settle back in. The Broncos are not good enough to win without him providing an edge on the headsets. He did that multiple times at Cincinnati with well-designed passing concepts and, at one point, talking an official into calling an illegal shift.
The Broncos need that guy. They cannot have him run hot and cold. There is no easing his burden. He signed up for this hazmat project, cleaning up the nuclear mess left by Hackett.
But recent results have raised eyebrows. Payton is too good, too experienced to have his acumen be the first thing questioned after losses.
In fairness, he is in a tough spot, one unique in his career. He has never coached a rookie quarterback or had an offense with so little room for error. It has left him too dependent on Nix, with Payton falling into the trap of believing the kid is Drew Brees. With Brees, there was only one speed. Hurry, hurry, hurry.
That mindset does not mesh with the Broncos’ current personnel. Laugh at the Pro Bowl selections if you wish — Zach Allen’s snub was a travesty — but it revealed a sobering truth: The Broncos did not have a single offensive skill player make fifth alternate in the voting by fans, coaches and players.
They lack playmakers at tight end and running back, and they need a No. 1 receiver — Is it too soon for me to bring up Tee Higgins again as I did in October? — to pair with Courtland Sutton.
It has left Payton conflicted. He has plays he knows will work, but he doesn’t have the players to execute them. And in the absence of a trustworthy run game — he has not had a single 100-yard rusher since he took over in Denver — he leans too heavily on Nix.
Per Next Gen Stats, Nix ranks seventh in dropbacks this season with 610, second most among rookies to Chicago’s Caleb Williams. Out of 17 quarterbacks with 500-plus dropbacks, only Williams, C.J. Stroud and Aaron Rodgers have lower expected points added (an advanced statistic to measure how well a team performs on a play-to-play basis) than Nix.
Payton knows Nix can handle responsibility. But if you look at those around him, it is not a fair ask.
When Payton is in his bag, the Broncos look like a playoff team, crushing the entire NFC South and rallying past the Browns and Colts.
When he’s not? The Broncos are incapable of beating a good team.
Payton was brought in to give the Broncos a fresh start. He has succeeded. Now, he needs to recalibrate. These are not the Saints. There is not one simple solution: be aggressive or be passive.
The answer with this team lies in the in-between, and luckily for Payton, he has another chance to show he understands this by delivering his most significant victory Sunday.
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