Nobody is complaining. But we all know what is coming.
The Broncos cannot keep winning this way, by stinking for long stretches, then creating goosebumps that leave us running for the history books. It is not sustainable, like making every green light when late for work.
Denver is the player hitting .300 with 15 bloopers. Regression looms without a course correction.
Blame Sean Payton’s play-calling if you must. But here’s the thing: Bo Nix has to play better.
Time for the captain, who is a dude in the fourth quarter, to prove he’s The Man for a full game. It is something we have not seen since the rout of the Bengals. Want to be considered a top 10 quarterback? Outplay the Cowboys’ Dak Prescott, who is on a career heater.
This is not what Broncos Country wants to hear. For a fan base that grew restless and desperate for a reason to believe after 13 quarterbacks failed to replace Peyton Manning, Nix represents hope. He is the reason the Broncos are relevant, a notion enforced by his spectacular rookie season.
But this year has looked different, uneven.
Nix has given us all the feels with his nervy finishes, and this cannot be ignored.
The Broncos boast a four-game winning streak, but the last three defy logic.
Nobody is demonstrating consistency on offense. Not the coordinator (Dick Monfort will sell the Rockies before Payton gives up play calling). Not the running backs. Not the receivers. Not the marquee free-agent tight end (Evan Engram) the coaching staff maddeningly ignores in the first and third quarters (Engram has 12 targets in those spots in six games).
But Nix deserves blame, too. It comes with the expectations this season.
“We know we have an execution problem,” Nix acknowledged Wednesday.
The statistics over the last 12 quarters reveal splits more common for the Rockies at home and on the road. Of how Bo Nix has been forced to overcome No Nix.
In the fourth quarters against the Eagles and Giants, and first quarter against the Jets, Nix completed 35 of 46 passes for 389 yards and four touchdowns, including two rushing. In the other nine quarters, Nix is 35 of 73 (below 50 %) for 306 yards and zero scores.
Tom Brady becomes Brady Quinn. Greg Maddux becomes Mike Maddux.
There has been so much chatter about starting faster. The issue is the middle of games. Where’s the beef?
The Broncos have not scored in the third quarter since Week 3. They have not scored in the second quarter since Week 4.
Nix makes us forget these donuts with his late work. Nobody has to be a star — Courtland Sutton is the closest thing the Broncos have among the skill players — when he goes video game mode.
Truth is, Nix cannot keep making up for the deficits on the scoreboard and deficiencies around him. Not against good teams. Sorry, Giants fans, your team is plucky, but little else. The Cowboys are average, but their offense is not.
Nix is not going to be able to cover for another barren stretch against a Dallas offense that averages 24.3 points per game on the road and features the triple-threat of Jake Ferguson, George Pickens and CeeDee Lamb.
What has to happen?
First, Nix needs to hit a few deep balls. He has been inaccurate on those throws. Payton, for all of the customer in-box complaints, schemes guys open. Nix has to nail a few or at least give his targets an opportunity to make a play or draw an interference call.
We know he can do it, as evidenced by his work against the Browns, Bengals and Bills last season.
Not connecting leads to an overreaction. Payton leans on passes behind the line of scrimmage — nobody does it at a higher rate — and screens. Those require elite execution, blocking, play-making. That rarely happens.
Is some of this on Nix with ball placement and timing? Yeah. Can it be fixed? Sure.
But there is a more viable solution. Get Nix into rhythm with the mid-range game and play-action passes. The completion that got him right against the Giants came with 1:25 left in the third: a 16-yard out to Sutton. Then the run game happened. And Nix was part of it. Until last Sunday, his designed rushing attempts were down from a year ago.
There is no good reason Nix should run for less than 40 yards per game. He is one of the best athletes on the field.
If teams want to use man coverage — the Cowboys experimented with more of it last week — then Nix should take off. And Payton has to dial up runs for his quarterback, not waiting until the final minutes when everyone is frantic and desperate.
Franchise quarterbacks make everybody better. There are times Nix has made things worse.
In the first two games, he struggled. He wasn’t seeing the field, and he was reacting to pressure that wasn’t there. He found himself against the Bengals, but it has been a mixed bag since. Payton, for sure, creates issues by asking too much of Nix — he is in his second season, not his 10th — and getting him to the line of scrimmage late, a process muddied by personnel changes.
But Nix has dealt with mechanical flaws and become too structured, forcing throws instead of taking easy first downs with his legs.
Because of the dumpster fire that preceded him, many want to give Nix an out when things don’t look right, myself included.
Things have changed. The Broncos want to play into February. So, when Nix leads an offense that went 16 straight possessions without a touchdown over the past two weeks, we cannot excuse it.
Nix is not having the same year, even if his projections (27 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) are close to 2024 (29 and 12).
He goes into a cocoon for long stretches. Then he goes Canton in the fourth quarter.
Last Sunday, he was outplayed by Jaxson Dart for 50 minutes. He wasn’t getting a lot of help. Again, we expect more from a franchise quarterback. We expect him to make everyone better, like he did in his latest comeback.
Nix is talented, smart and clutch. But if he wants to move into the league’s upper crust, taking this team with him, do it against Dak.
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