The costume spoke volumes.
At a Halloween party this week, Bo Nix and his wife, Izzy, wore “Top Gun”-inspired outfits. Decked out in a leather bomber jacket with sunglasses and a crew cut, Nix was Iceman.
Ferris Bueller is fun, mischievous, an expert on shortcuts. Iceman is more Nix’s personality — confident, driven, rigid and dedicated. He is known for adhering to rules and coloring inside the lines, apt for Nix, who revealed on the Jumbotron last week that if football fell through he would have become an FBI agent.
Structure, guidelines, executing the plan — all of these things are paramount this week. Well ahead of schedule, Nix has a chance Sunday to prove he is a franchise quarterback.
After a clumsy start, he gave off those vibes in October, winning the NFL’s Rookie of the Month.
Typically, teams know by November of a quarterback’s second season whether he is the answer. Nix is shaking the Polaroid picture, developing faster than expected. His performance against the Panthers makes it easy to dream — of a winning record, of a playoff berth. Wouldn’t that be something for the Broncos after spending years wandering in the darkness?
But the question of whether this quarterback and this team are real hangs over this matchup. The Broncos have gotten fat on the NFC South, Raiders and Jets. Put another way, their CHSAA RPI stinks.
Sunday, Nix can show this team is not a fraud. The Ravens provide that type of test, one that understandably will send many in Broncos Country into hiding, afraid to peek their head above the covers.
The Broncos, to put it kindly, have wilted in these spots since Super Bowl 50. Put them in a big game against a good team and no amount of Febreze can remove the stench.
The Ravens are not an ideal matchup. They boast reigning MVP Lamar Jackson. Though he missed two practices this week with knee and back issues, he is the league’s best player. Sick, tired, hurt, it doesn’t matter.
He also uses rookie quarterbacks to floss his teeth, going 8-0 against them in his career.
Face Jackson without flinching, and Nix will answer critical questions about his long-term future and his ability to meet the moment. Beat Jackson, and he will be viewed as the solution, only needing more weapons — the Broncos must trade for/draft/sign a tight end and No. 1 receiver next week or next March — to finish off his development.
Skepticism surrounds Nix. This week Dan Pizzuta of 33rd Team ranked Nix 29th among starting quarterbacks based on skillset and production, ahead of only Gardner Minshew, Mason Rudolph and Spencer Rattler. That demands Lasik surgery or a recount.
Even with his improvement, Nix’s accuracy and ceiling remain question marks. That is what makes this game — and next week at Kansas City — such an important measuring stick. Nix can mute critics and change minds by performing well against a Super Bowl contender.
He will be confident. Over the last five games, he has accounted for 10 touchdowns and posted a 96.4 quarterback rating. But the road remains part of his growth test.
Nix played well for one drive at Tampa Bay and ran past the Saints. But his overall numbers frame the challenge at Baltimore. Nix has not yet shown that he can take care of the ball and take chances.
He has not turned the ball over in the Broncos’ three straight road wins or been sacked. This holds extreme value. But the conservative approach will not be enough to upset the Ravens. He must make more plays downfield and with his legs.
He averages 144.5 yards passing and 40 yards rushing per game away from Denver. Protecting the ball is imperative, but it will prevent a victory if it overwhelms his approach. The Broncos are not winning a rock fight in Baltimore. They have to score in the mid-20s.
If Nix wants to sway the national conversation around him, he must make more plays — a 30-yard-plus rush, for instance — and hit a deep strike or two. The Ravens’ secondary provides reason to believe he can. This group has been leaking oil all season, a mix of injuries, dropped picks and blown assignments. Baltimore has allowed more than 300 yards four times and only held an opponent under 200 once.
Nix has to drill Courtland Sutton in stride on crossing routes and connect deep with Troy Franklin or Marvin Mims Jr. You know, show a little Maverick in his game with guts and instincts. And coach Sean Payton must keep Adam Trautman and Lucas Krull in the mix as Baltimore allows the second most targets and yards to tight ends.
This game will not serve as a referendum on Nix if he fizzles. But this type of chance is rare. The Broncos, like Nix, are on a heater and healthy for their toughest opponent. And they are self-aware, understanding fully what is at stake and what a strong performance would mean for their reputation and their season.
If anybody thinks this week isn’t a big deal, they have been living in a spider cave.
For eight straight years, the Broncos have melted in the spotlight.
This time feels different. They have Iceman. The stage is yours, kid. Show you are The Man.
Want more Broncos news? Sign up for the Broncos Insider to get all our NFL analysis.
Originally Published:
