Merry Nixmas. And Happy New Year?
Bo Nix and the Broncos have exceeded expectations, posting their first winning season since 2016. But the joy they have brought Broncos Country also makes them prisoners of their success. We are a society defined by instant gratification.
Puzzles and government bonds were not under the tree Wednesday. More like drones and Teenage Mutant Ninja Mayhem Pizzafire Delivery Vans.
This season, fair or not, will be largely defined by these final two games. Can the Broncos reach the playoffs, ending the NFL’s second-longest active drought to the Jets? As a reminder, being in a sentence with the Jets is like a movie being compared favorably to “Joker: Folie a Deux.”
Get to 10.
Sean Payton has streamlined the message for his players, who understandably don’t have time to text Pythagoras or deal with messy tie breakers.
Get to 10.
It’s not exactly William Wallace yelling “Freedom!” in “Braveheart,” but it works.
Get to 10.
Or, how about, Gifts from 10.
There is no chance the Broncos upset the Bengals and reach 10 victories without scoring 30 points. This brings us back to Nix. You know, No. 10. He has been good this season, showing without a doubt that he is a franchise cornerstone. He is attempting to join John Elway as the only rookie quarterback to lead the Broncos to the postseason.
Nix has stirred the imagination, made everything seem possible again. But in their latest, biggest game of the season, the Broncos need a boost, a shot of espresso. They need a battery of big plays from Nix.
Coach Sean Payton will dispute this idea, stressing the importance of painting the picture around him. But Nix can do this. Against this defense.
The Bengals, how do I say this politely, are not good. They rank in the bottom third in yards per game, passing yards, sacks, and third down and red zone conversion percentage. This is not the result of a single bad game skewing numbers like the Broncos debacle at the Dolphins in 2023. These marks were earned over several months.
Yes, weather might be a factor with the wind and rain. No excuses. Nix must become the postman and deliver in all conditions or face a play-in game versus the Chiefs next week. Maybe the Chiefs rest their starters, but Kansas City is 17-1 vs. Denver it its last 18 games. So, it would behoove the Broncos to take care of business this week.
This Bengals game is about one thing: splash plays. Making and preventing them.
It is obvious the Broncos have to slow Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. He is on an all-time heater, posting seven straight games with at least 250 yards and three touchdown passes. But, he is 4-3 in these games.
The easy answer is playing keep away by running the ball. But I am not falling for it. Payton can write “Run It!!” on his play sheet or tattoo it on his forehead, and the gravitational pull to pass will remain strong. Also, the Broncos have not had a 100-yard rusher in 32 games under Payton. Latavius Murray’s 103-yard effort in the 2022 season finale represents the last.
Listen, my calls for making Audric Estime a bellcow are known. But Nix going off, based on the first 15 weeks, is a safer bet.
The numbers stare the Broncos in the face, and also indicate the need for improvement. The Bengals have yielded 28 plays of more than 20 yards over the past seven games, including nine to the Steelers and eight to the Chargers in losses. They will blow assignments and miss tackles.
The problem? The Broncos have become more dink and dunk the past two weeks. They produced one play of more than 20 yards against the Colts and Chargers, a 53-yarder to Marvin Mims Jr. But even that bolt — a short completion with a long gain — symbolized the offense. Of Nix’s 40 attempts against Los Angeles, 36 were characterized as “short” on the official play list. This places heavy emphasis on open-field blocking and missed tackles.
Those are not exactly the Broncos’ strengths, especially the latter.
Saturday calls for Nix to let down his hair and go to the air. With the Bengals struggling to produce pressure, save for Trey Hendrickson, Nix will have opportunities to push the ball downfield. It puts the onus on receiver Courtland Sutton to win his one-on-ones and for Mims or Troy Franklin to catch at least one deep ball. Nix has shown accuracy on short throws and timing routes. His progress in these areas has been real and promising. This week demands something else. Remember how Nix flipped the Browns game on its head? It was the laser to Mims on a 93-yard touchdown.
Denver is not winning Saturday without gashing the Bengals. The Broncos are not equipped to beat Cincinnati by plodding up and down the field. It is not who they are. It’s not what they do. Could that change on Saturday because of the weather? Yeah. But hell could also feature ice on car windshields and frost on the grass.
This season has been defined by Nix. Against this defense, with these stakes, he will meet the moment with big strikes.
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