Renck: Rookie quarterbacks stink against Spagnuolo’s defense. But give it to Bo Nix, he believes he can do this

The plan is audacious. The confidence is contagious. And the idea of the Broncos upsetting the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs is outrageous.

Step one: Arrive at Hee-Haw Stadium and embrace the chaos.

Step two: Seize the moment, in between chops and chants and CBS cutaways to Taylor Swift.

Step three: Have Bo Nix deliver the most efficient outing in the biggest game of his NFL career.

Wait, what? Who among the NFL schedule makers thought it was a good idea to have the Broncos face the Chiefs on the road after getting devoured like crabcakes in Baltimore?

Of all the things that require suspension of belief, Nix playing well is not one of them. Nix did not just meet the moment in Baltimore, he embraced it like a long-lost friend. At 24, he shows no fear even as every number screams the Broncos have no chance in Kansas City.

But, isn’t it time somebody scratched matches on the Mona Lisa? Why not the kid with spiked hair and a steely glare?

“We have a hungry locker room. One game, one moment (at Baltimore) doesn’t define us. It’s not going to crush us by any means,” Nix said Wednesday. “I would rather play in a hostile environment (in Kansas City) than with no fans and having to bring our own energy. These are the games we all grew up watching and if you are not ready you probably shouldn’t be in this league.”

There is no question that Nix belongs. But the Broncos, overall, looked like imposters against the Ravens. A chance to rise up went belly up as Denver was outclassed.

There are no numbers to argue for an upset, nothing to point to that suggests Sunday will be different. This is where the battle between hope and expectation come into play. Do the Broncos really believe? Pinky Promise?

They should for the least likely reason: Nix.

On paper, this sets up as his worst game. Well, maybe not the worst. We all would like to forget the day the Duck couldn’t throw in the rain against a washed-up Aaron Rodgers.

Facing Steve Spagnuolo is almost a surefire way to suffer a crisis of confidence and statistics. He took over as Kansas City’s defensive boss in 2019. Since then, rookie quarterbacks are 1-11 against him. Justin Hebert produced the lone victory in the regular season finale in 2020.

Spags, as he is known, creates panic before the snap. He will overload players on one side as a false alarm. Then blitz a weakside linebacker who is lurking in the shadows. He will cross the wires in a quarterback’s brain, and leave offensive linemen losing their minds. He shows stuff they will never do to make you think he will. And never shows stuff that he will suddenly break out against a rookie to impose the Chiefs’ will.

Nix does not have to be a savior. Just better than the previous five Broncos quarterbacks who have dropped eight straight games in Kansas City.

The numbers are sobering. At Arrowhead, Spagnuolo owns five home wins against Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater and Russell Wilson. The trio combined for five touchdowns, eight interceptions and 11 sacks in those games. Lock was the only rookie of the group and completed 18 of 40 passes for 208 yards and one interception in a 23-3 loss.

“They are going to try (Nix), test him. They are going to see how much film does he watch? How prepared is he going to be?” Courtland Sutton said. “I have no lack of faith in him to go in there and take care of business.”

In the past, Broncos players said this about their quarterback because they had to. They say it now because they want to. They see it.

Nix has to flirt with danger while remaining full of common sense. We saw him grow up before our eyes in Baltimore, his latest classroom lesson as Sean Payton explained. Now, he’s going from algebra to calculus.

Wednesday he talked like no student I have ever known, actually looking forward to the test.

“It’s much better than playing a team maybe you know you have the advantage over,” Nix said. “The mindset is that you want the tough ones. If it was easy, everyone would do it.”

His mindset is as refreshing as it is necessary. He might get exposed. Everyone since Peyton Manning has. But at least Bo knows the Broncos are not beating the Chiefs by passive-aggressively tiptoeing into the stadium and kicking a few field goals.

And let’s be clear. He needs help. Payton has to be impeccable one year after an awful coaching performance in Kansas City.

“We have to calm it down formationally,” said Payton, whose Broncos beat the Chiefs in Denver last season, ending a 16-game losing streak to their rival. “There are certain things play-design wise (we have to do).”