Rockies Journal: 10 key questions midway through Cactus League

Here are 10 big questions as the Rockies enter the second half of their Cactus League season:

1. The Rockies entered the weekend with a 10-3-1 record. What does that mean for the regular season?

Not much, in and of itself. In 2011, the Rockies posted a 20-11-1 record in the Cactus League but finished 73-89 in the regular season. However, this spring’s pitching staff (3.25 ERA) is showing signs of marked improvement, so we aren’t going to see a 5.47 team ERA like we did last season.

2. Will Kris Bryant stay healthy and be productive in 2025?

That’s the $27 million question I can’t answer, at least not yet. And maybe not even by Memorial Day. So much depends on Bryant’s creaky lower back.

However, there are some promising signs. Early in camp, he crushed a 111.8 mph, 462-foot home run to deep left-center field against the White Sox. The last time Bryant hit a ball 110 mph or harder in a regular season game was in 2021, and the last time he hit a home run that far was in 2019.

3. Will No. 1 prospect Chase Dollander break camp as part of the starting rotation?

The right-hander’s stuff is legitimate, and he has the right attitude to jump from Double-A to the majors. He entered the weekend with a 7.20 ERA after two starts and a combined five innings. Dollander’s high ERA results from giving up three homers, but he’s pitched well. More telling is this: He struck out seven and walked just one in his first two outings. The prediction here is that, yes, he’ll be in the rotation.

4. Which outfielders will break camp with the big-league team?

Heading into spring training, it looked like Brenton Doyle, Nolan Jones, Jordan Beck and Sam Hilliard. But the outfield landscape could be shifting.

Hilliard is having a tough spring, hitting .105 (2 for 19) entering the weekend with 10 strikeouts vs. two walks. The Rockies would like him on the roster as the primary backup to Doyle in center, but he’s not a lock.

Beck must still convince the team he can be a starter and possibly fill in as a center fielder. Otherwise, he’ll begin the season at Triple-A Albuquerque to get needed at-bats. And don’t rule out Sean Bouchard being on the team come Opening Day. Much depends on how committed the Rockies are to their youth movement.

5. Will the Rockies be better with Thairo Estrada at second base?

This is an unqualified yes. Some fans wondered why the club cut Brendan Rodgers, who now might be playing his way onto the roster in Houston and could even win a starting job. But Estrada has been Colorado’s best player in camp, hitting .500 (11 for 22) with a 1.069 OPS. Estrada has better range at second than Rodgers does, and the Rockies like the energy he brings to the field.

6. Are the Rockies solving their strikeout problem?

Reducing the K’s and chase rate has been an emphasis at camp, but time will tell.

Colorado’s 1,617 strikeouts last year were the most in franchise history. According to Baseball Savant, the Rockies’ 31.8 chase percentage was the second-highest in the majors behind the Marlins.

Given the small sample size and numerous other factors (lack of scouting reports, for example), spring training stats are notoriously misleading. Still, it’s worth a look at the strikeout percentages of some key players heading into the weekend: Ezequiel Tovar (27.3%), Brenton Doyle (25.0%), Michael Toglia (36.0%), Jordan Beck (30.8%), Bryant (14.3%), Zac Veen (21.0%), Nolan Jones (23.1%), Ryan McMahon (30.4%), Estrada (8.7%), and Hilliard (47.6%).

7. Which two catchers will make the 26-man roster?

When camp opened, I thought it would be veteran Jacob Stallings and 25-year-old Hunter Goodman. I still believe that’ll be the case, mainly because the Rockies need Goodman’s power. He’s hitting .429 (6 for 14) with three doubles midway through spring.

But if the Rockies want better defense behind the plate, they’ll go with veteran Austin Nola, 35, even though he’s hit just 24 homers in 345 at-bats.

8. Will the Rockies steal more bases in 2025?

With Doyle, Jones, Hilliard, Estrada, and possibly Veen on the roster, they should be working the bases more. And Tovar can also steal a bag from time to time.

The Rockies want their offense to pressure the opposition, particularly at Coors Field, but stolen bases have been scarce. Last season, the Rockies ranked 25th in stolen bases with 85. Since ‘22, they are 28th, ahead of only the Giants and the Twins.

9. Who’ll break camp as the closer?